I attended a church leadership workshop today hosted by St. Stephen's with attendees from similar sized churches. The focus was coping with change in the 21st century. As technology and society are changing, churches must adapt to be relevant.

On the day before Christmas, we had a snow storm and the Senate put a lump of coal in our stockings. We can hope that they'll fail to reach an accomodation with the House on Health care, but I'm not optimistic. We'll probably be living with this abominable piece of legislation for some time. More positively, we attended the Christmas Eve candlelight service at St. Stephen's with my wife playing bells and myself standing in as usher. We also opened Christmas presents.

On the first day of Christmas, while it was quite white and gray,

we were nice and cozy,

and had a splendid Christmas feast.

I attended the Colorado Episcopal Diocesan Convention in Pueblo the past couple of days. It was an worthwhile experience, better than I anticipated. The workshops I attended were interesting, and the business sessions were tolerable. I enjoyed getting to know my fellow delegates from St. Stephen's better as well as meeting delegates from other churches. I wouldn't mind doing it again.

The Wilderness Experience worship service impressed me more than anything else. This service has been held at St. John's Cathedral for the past two years. The experimental litergy is blended with meditation, movement, music, and imagery in an engaging manner. I also attended a workshop describing how it came about and is produced. It involves more work from more people than typical worship services, but I think it's worth the effort.

Forty years ago today Apollo 8 orbited the moon, sending this photo back to Earth as a Christmas present.

Here's the Apollo 8 flight log. When we see another Lunar Christmas?

Joel Garreau's Radical Evolution looks at the potential changes that lie in store for humanity as a result of the GRIN technologies (Genetic Engineering, Robotics, Informatics, and Nanotechnology). He considers three general scenarios that he calls Heaven, Hell, and Prevail, interviewing major proponents of each.

A key factor in the Heaven and Hell scenarios is the exponential growth that technology has experienced. Most predictions of the future make the mistake of linear extrapolation from present conditions. Technology has been changing exponentially, so it's reasonable to apply exponential curves to present trends.

Those favoring the Heaven scenario see some presently living humans achieving greatly extended lifespans, if not effective immortality. They expect superhuman intelligence to arise in either enhanced human or computer guise. These are obviously the optimists.

The pessimists favor the Hell scenario. Rapidly advancing technology will render human existence meaningless, destroy humanity, or perhaps destroy Earth. They believe that the only way to prevent this is to forbid the threatening technologies.

The Prevail scenario holds that humanity will somehow muddle through the turbulent future that lies ahead. Humanity has a history of meeting unexpected challenges and finding solutions by trial and error.

Garreau accepts the exponential curve of technological advance as a given, but I don't buy this. While a linear projection is likely to over-estimate the near term changes and under-estimate the long term changes, an exponential estimate may not be much better. What rate of grown do you use? Is the rate of growth constant, and if not, how will it vary? How will different technologies and ornery humans interact? Will there be positive or negative feedback between them? I don't think the future is predictable, but it is useful to consider some possible scenarios.

I'm not enough of an optimist to accept the heaven scenario, and besides, it seems a bit dull. The Hell scenario is likewise uninteresting, and I don't believe stasis is a good thing, if it's even possible. I'm firmly in the Prevail camp. We should be careful, but not be afraid to try new things. I'm signing up for the good ship Muddling Through.

We participated in the Christmas Eve candlelight service at St. Stephen's and exchanged stockings after we returned home.

Merry Christmas to all, especially the military, police, fire, and other professionals keeping watch tonight.

It's overcast and snowing on thie Easter Day in Colorado. I attended the early service this morning and have a turkey in the oven for the feast.

The Lord is my strength and my song, and he has become my salvation. -- Psalm 118:14

and to All a Good Night!